Philosophy's Continuous Coastline

Before turning to the planned blog for July, celebrating American Independence Day, it seems appropriate to celebrate having thus far survived the great global coronavirus pestilence of 2020.

By way of contrast, the European pestilence of 1347 - 1351 C.E. was most likely an expression of bubonic plague, caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis in fleas on rat-infested trade routes linking Asia and Europe. After gaining entry into a human’s blood via a flea bite, this bacterium causes death via septic shock to the immune system. Based on historical research long after the fact, this medieval plague is estimated to have killed between one-third and one-half of the European population. This European pestilence, as well as today’s pandemic, caught their contemporary societies completely by surprise. The Spanish flu of 1918 was deadly, but influenza outbreaks per se were not then unexpected.

The pandemic of 2020 has been caused by the coronavirus, SARS CoV-2, which results in the disease, Covid-19. After originating in bats and jumping species in Asia, SARS CoV-2 has spread globally; either directly from person to person via breathing; or indirectly from infected surfaces via hand-to-face contact. Covid-19 can express itself in multiple ways, including, but not necessarily limited to, hyperactive immune response, pneumonia, breathing failure, stroke, excessive blood clotting, and system failure of multiple organs.

According to the print edition of the Wall Street Journal, as of May 1, 2020 the coronavirus pandemic has resulted in 3,334,416 reported cases and 237,943 officially attributable deaths world-wide; while the corresponding U.S. data are 1,098,565 cases and 64,577 deaths. Starting with these numbers and a total U.S. population of approximately 330,000,000, the U.S. Covid-19 mortality rate for 2020 will be co-determined by the cumulative number of daily Covid-19 deaths starting in May and running through December of 2020.

According to initial U.S. federal reports, the upper bound on the estimate of U.S. deaths due to this outbreak of Covid-19 is 2.2 million; assuming that this outbreak will run its course during 2020, the implied upper bound on the U.S. mortality rate due to Covid-19 in 2020 is 0.67% (2.2 / 330). In contrast, the plague of 1347 to 1351 could be associated with four consecutive years with an annual mortality rate of 12%, which would account for the death of 40% of the population. (Note that 1 - 0.88^4 = 0.4, which is in a mid-range between the historical estimates of 0.33 and 0.50.) Thus, the implied upper bound on the U.S. mortality rate due to Covid-19 in 2020 is about 18 times smaller than the historically estimated annual European mortality rate due to bubonic plague during the mid-fourteenth century (0.67% » 12% / 18). On this metric, the bleakest U.S. outlook for 2020 would have to be multiplied by a horror-factor of 18 in order to capture the reality of the earlier bubonic plague.

The cultural memory of an epidemic with a very high mortality rate, like that in the mid-fourteenth century, has disappeared; leading less to thankfulness for the last 670 years of medical progress than to the overwhelming presumption that public health measures can now be taken that will swiftly eliminate coronavirus deaths without regard to economic consequences. Without approved therapies or vaccines for Covid-19, however, this presumption implies that travel, trade, and commerce must be largely shut down; thereby magnifying the prospects for world-wide economic recession or depression; portending ruinous taxation, hyper-inflation, and expropriation; and auguring famine, civil chaos, and stark authoritarianism, if not indeed updated versions of the Committee of Public Safety and the Reign of Terror. As examples, note that the U.S. Department of Labor’s March-to-April grocery inflation rate for 2020 was 2.6%, the highest monthly increase since the mid-1970’s and the “Arab oil embargo”; that a U.S. Presidential order was required to balance the needs of workers and consumers while keeping meat-packing plants open; and that one U.S. Senator has already been vilified as the “Marie Antoinette of the Senate” for opposing nationalization of state pension debts that long predate the pandemic.

A time of existential crisis may lead to a re-examination, on the part of individuals and of societies alike, of fundamental values or ultimate concerns. The theologian Paul Tillich believed that human attitudes towards objects of theistic, religious devotion are expressions of ultimate concern. These objects are experienced as most holy, real, and valuable. Tillich’s approach does not address non-theistic religions; and the frequently casual attitudes of ancient pagans towards their civic deities does not seem to indicate existential attachment. Thus, Tillich’s analysis seems to be largely restricted to Western societies in the Common Era.

Today’s Zeitgeist demands, however, that the criteria for “ultimate concern” be generalized so as to include globalism, environmentalism, and identity politics, etc.; as well as metaphysical interests in a personal God and in Being itself. This generalization of Tillich’s original notion dilutes its significance while widening its application. “Ultimate concern” may now pertain to traditional worship, praise, and prayer or to the quest for some ultimate good, such as the Holy Grail, Absolute Knowing, or (one presumes) the Minimal Carbon Footprint.

The analysis of “ultimate concern” - - on the occasion of the war against SARS CoV-2 - - is reminiscent of an earlier era in which national survivals were imperiled. Between 1942 and 1944 the BBC radio service broadcast three talks by C. S. Lewis regarding the moral, spiritual, and intellectual content of Christianity. These talks offered spiritual clarity and encouragement to a beleaguered people and were subsequently collected as the book, Mere Christianity, in 1952. (Today, the fraction of the population tuning in to such broadcasts might be smaller, but that is a sociological effect not dealt with here.) In the June posting to this blog we will examine some arguments from Mere Christianity.